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多一个维度看未来
       华夏时报编委程凯{今天的话题来自我的生活经历。我已经连续 10 天没有从钱包里取钱了。是的?要么是支付宝;要么是微信?更多的是支付宝。它的名字是为付费使用而生的。我告诉人们这是“可怕的”。以前我从银行取了一些零钱》以满足生活的需要;但是当我用零钱的时候}银行不知道我是怎么用的。现在不同了。早上出门{什么时间?什么时间{在哪个城市’哪条街;哪家店买早餐{花了多少钱(支付宝全权掌控?我几乎成了一个财务[地域%和生活偏好。我不太害怕这种透明度。这是便利和隐私之间的平衡。人天生就是懒惰的]这也是人类进步的动力之一。汽车]飞机和轮船都是步行较少的人使用的。但我确实感受到了汽车外观对马车的威胁。我说;“这叫大数据}传统银行怎么做支付宝%”有人接了我的话, “你见过三体吗[它叫不在同一个维度[敌人是维度缩小的。”因此(我们需要另一个维度来看待未来。多维性的话题也来自于我对?经济学人(11月刊的联想:它的开场白叫做“未来的多维”。未来的世界会是什么样子?这本老式杂志展示了一个比你想象的多一个维度的世界!人工智能’无人机:电动飞行。关于人工智能?苹果的答案是“虚拟助手”Siri{IBM 的答案是“沃森”。手机钱包, 人工智能%新能源?在我们传统的投资(消费:外贸语境下]都不是词。然而;它们的出现为我们的经济前景增添了另一个维度。如果我们把眼界从全球量化紧缩的忧虑中拉出来!换个角度思考, 也许未来会更乐观:你会更有创业的动物精神。如果我们还停留在原来的空间里{就会产生很多幻觉)我举几个例子。一是消费对中国经济增长的重要性。现在是“双十一”季节、鸡和鸭子争抢湖面。我看到一个分析说“从阿里和苹果的财报来看}不要担心中国经济”, 因为中国的消费水平并没有受到经济增长放缓的影响。
       阿里巴巴的马云知道中国人和美国人的区别?中国人有储蓄]苹果的库克也发现了这一点:“看看那些涌向苹果线上和线下商店的消费者, 如果我不看那些电视和线上新闻:我不觉得中国经济有什么问题。”这是否真的意味着中国经济结构正在加速转型:从高度依赖投资转向消费和投资并驾齐驱?我的回答远非如此这么乐观;消费和投资有点像鸡和蛋的关系[先有鸡还是先有蛋}看情况。投资下降,
中国消费迟早要下降。重要的问题是由于传播和时间的滞后, 单纯的数据和“双11”表面上的火爆程度:是绝对不可能证明消费结构转型成功的。成功转型是绝对不可能的。如果你真的遵守规则{最终的结果将是你从未想象过的。
       从这个角度看,
“十三五”规划有必要将未来五年的GDP目标定为6.5(。更重要的是[在习近平关于“十三五”规划的发言中)他特别提到要留出空间(“化解过剩产能’优化升级产业结构}需要一定的时间和空间? ……考虑到市场预期的积极引导)留有一定的回旋余地, 在综合各方意见的基础上(征求意见稿提出了保持经济中高速增长的目标。
       生长。”我再举一个例子!房地产投资重要吗(当然很重要%正如瑞银中国首席经济学家王涛所说!“房地产调整是经济最大的下行压力”?而未来两年)“经济下行的主要压力将来自房地产建设的调整及其对工业的影响[矿业投资的负面影响”。因此{房地产投资的不足必须通过其他基础设施的投资来弥补。弥补它的唯一方法是忍受本轮经济周期结束后?等待债务杠杆在未来较长一段时间内慢慢消化?这里唯一可以期待的是!在新一轮政府主导投资中]新能源和新能源汽车可以发挥额外作用。
       这个空间的作用?带出了我们在旧空间无法想象和看到的东西。
       我只说电动汽车%[经济学人]杂志很期待电动飞行。
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CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000685s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=baihe-lotus.com;charset=utf8
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2.230289s